## IMF Raises India’s Growth Forecast to 6.6% for 2025-26: A Sign of Economic Resilience

In a sharp contrast to global headwinds, the **International Monetary Fund (IMF)** has upgraded India’s growth forecast for fiscal year 2025-26 to **6.6%**, citing strong domestic demand and resilience against external pressures. This upbeat revision comes even as the country faces headwinds from increasing U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. ([Reuters][1])

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### 📈 Why the Forecast Was Raised

* The IMF attributes the upward revision to a **strong first quarter performance**, where India posted a growth rate of **7.8%**, driven by robust private consumption and investment. ([Reuters][1])

* Domestic demand in sectors such as services, manufacturing, and consumption has offset some of the negative impacts from elevated tariff pressures abroad. ([Reuters][1])

* Earlier, the World Bank had also raised its forecast for India’s 2025 growth to **6.5%**, reflecting broader optimism among international institutions. ([Reuters][1])

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### 🌍 India vs. Global Slowdown

While India is projected to gain momentum, the global economy is expected to slow. The IMF forecasts **global growth to drop to around 3.2%**, underscoring mounting pressure on emerging markets and trade-dependent economies. ([The Economic Times][2])

The U.S. tariff regime, especially on imports from India, has injected uncertainty into trade flows—yet India’s internal strength appears to be cushioning the blow. ([The Economic Times][2])

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### 🔍 What This Means for India

1. **Validation of Economic Policy**

   The upward revision provides strong validation for the government’s recent reforms—particularly stimulus measures, tax rationalization, and consumer spending support.

2. **Boost in Investor Confidence**

   Higher expected growth can attract greater foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio inflows, especially in sectors like infrastructure, technology, and manufacturing.

3. **Trade & Export Strategy Review**

   With mounting external challenges, India may need to rework export strategies, diversify markets, and negotiate trade deals to offset tariff pressures.

4. **Pressure to Sustain Momentum**

   The challenge will be maintaining growth over the medium term—especially in 2026 and beyond, where the IMF expects a slight deceleration to **6.2%**. ([Reuters][1])

5. **Policy Roadmaps & Reforms**

   To sustain this growth, India will need to keep pushing reforms—investment in infrastructure, digitization, skill development, and strengthening supply chains.

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